Thoughts on Greek Debt Crisis?

[Arete]

Tsipras, like all Greek politicians, is going to slash his own wrists before he voluntarily takes on Greek unions for reform. There are a lot of obstacles to even trying: the rights of unions are enshrined in the Greek Constitution. Any change is not merely a new law, but would require constitutional revision. Unions also deliver block votes to candidates. The only way that has been found to control a particular union is to privatize whatever the union deals with, biggest current example being half the port of Pireus that was leased to the Chinese. The Chinese immediately told the union to get lost from their half of the port, they kept most of the workers but slashed a lot of the benefits. Long story short, the Chinese half is considered one of the most well run ports in the world. Ships avoid the union controlled half. Still, without leasing that half no one will update that part of the port, and you can't just tell the union to make concessions. Saying unions need to be reigned in gets you labeled as a traitor, and can kill your reelection chances.

[OkToBeTakei]

Tsipras, like all Greek politicians, is going to slash his own wrists before he voluntarily takes on Greek unions for reform. There are a lot of obstacles to even trying: the rights of unions are enshrined in the Greek Constitution. Any change is not merely a new law, but would require constitutional revision. Unions also deliver block votes to candidates. The only way that has been found to control a particular union is to privatize whatever the union deals with, biggest current example being half the port of Pireus that was leased to the Chinese. The Chinese immediately told the union to get lost from their half of the port, they kept most of the workers but slashed a lot of the benefits. Long story short, the Chinese half is considered one of the most well run ports in the world. Ships avoid the union controlled half. Still, without leasing that half no one will update that part of the port, and you can't just tell the union to make concessions. Saying unions need to be reigned in gets you labeled as a traitor, and can kill your reelection chances.

Totally not relevant, but Tsipras is rather tasty.

It's a lot Aretejo. A lot to change.

Do you think part of the reason Greeks in general want to stay with the Euro is because they don't trust the government to make these changes if they were cut loose?

[Arete]

I am going to pretend that you did not just imply that Tsipras is cute. Yep, that's it, didn't happen. Are there no swarthy Marxists who don't wear ties in Scotland? Maybe we do have more to export than I originally thought. :shifty:

The primary attachment of Greeks to the Euro comes from the respectability they feel it gives to be part of "the cool kid's club". It's so a Junior High it's embarrassing. They don't want to be Western Europe's poor, pathetic relation that can't even use the proper money. Which is ironic because that is indeed what the country has become. Second to that is of course your observation, that nothing is ever going to change unless it is needed to satisfy the EU. People have protested and gotten beat up and gone to jail over official corruption and the client state for decades. Nothing changes, and they're tired. In the end they withhold as much money as possible to keep it from becoming some politician's private vote getting fund and save it for bribes, to buy land, to set their kid's up in business, to send their kids that don't get in at home to university abroad. They know they're never going to see the new road, the updates for a hospital, the repair of a grammar school. It's easy for people to say "Greece needs to solve its own corruption problem without the EU", but to people who have been fighting that battle for generations, they don't have any fucks left to give over how the change is accomplished, if it means finally getting those changes made.

[OkToBeTakei]

Bumping as I heard on the news that Greece has agreed to the terms of the third bailout. On the news here it is saying £69 billion Sterling.

I'm not sure what to think having assimilated some of Aretejo's views, compared to what I thought weeks ago :think:

He's kind of attractive you know :shifty-kitty:

[nausicaa]

He's kind of attractive you know :shifty-kitty:

I think he's kind of dishy too. :embarrassed:

[Arete]

Where, o where did I go lax in explaining what a political opportunist of the first order Tsipras is? And he is so bourgeoise he has been dating and living with his junior high school sweet heart for over 25 years and 2 kids later. :P

But yes, 3rd bailout is looking good to go through even if German Finance Minister Schauble is making some ceremonial unhappy noise. I'll try to list the real big points tomorrow when I can think straight.

[OkToBeTakei]

Where, o where did I go lax in explaining what a political opportunist of the first order Tsipras is? And he is so bourgeoise he has been dating and living with his junior high school sweet heart for over 25 years and 2 kids later. :P

But yes, 3rd bailout is looking good to go through even if German Finance Minister Schauble is making some ceremonial unhappy noise. I'll try to list the real big points tomorrow when I can think straight.

:lol: He's not married? NOOOOOO! (Just like me then :P )

Will look forward to it.

Thought you were laying low as the drama llama stuff is not your thing. I just can't help myself..it's like a form of drama tourettes! :cry:

[Arete]

No drama llama, the man is as respectably middle class in his home life as you and Mr. Ok are. The fact he is not married gives him a LOT of street cred on the Greek Marxist Left.

To the bailout: the total of the bailout loan is 86 billion €. The first part of about 4 billion is said to be released before 8/20 so Greece can meet a 3.2 billion loan payment to the ECB due on 8/20. Supposedly 10 billion will be kept in Luxembourg to be used at a later date to reinfuse cash into Greek banks. Capital controls will remain in place and there are currently no plans to lift them. In order to get this 3rd Memorandum through Greek Parliment in the next few days, Tsipras is going to have to call a snap election. He does not have the support of his own party which has been snapped in 2 over the memorandum and austerity and the pro European opposition parties have indicated they are through propping his government up. Tsipras is extremely popular with the "man on the street", so he will win his own seat back easily. What is murkier is what kind of government he could form with a fractured Marxist party.

He rammed through some badly needed legislation at the behest of the Troika, but will these changes become voided in order for him to form a new government?

[OkToBeTakei]

No drama llama, the man is as respectably middle class in his home life as you and Mr. Ok are. The fact he is not married gives him a LOT of street cred on the Greek Marxist Left.

To the bailout: the total of the bailout loan is 86 billion €. The first part of about 4 billion is said to be released before 8/20 so Greece can meet a 3.2 billion loan payment to the ECB due on 8/20. Supposedly 10 billion will be kept in Luxembourg to be used at a later date to reinfuse cash into Greek banks. Capital controls will remain in place and there are currently no plans to lift them. In order to get this 3rd Memorandum through Greek Parliment in the next few days, Tsipras is going to have to call a snap election. He does not have the support of his own party which has been snapped in 2 over the memorandum and austerity and the pro European opposition parties have indicated they are through propping his government up. Tsipras is extremely popular with the "man on the street", so he will win his own seat back easily. What is murkier is what kind of government he could form with a fractured Marxist party.

He rammed through some badly needed legislation at the behest of the Troika, but will these changes become voided in order for him to form a new government?

:lol: I was talking about forum drama! It's good to know though that on top of all the other problems there hopefully will not be a Lewinsky scenario!

So from what you are saying it really still is very much an unknown outcome. I suppose that is no surprise and I'm not so naive to think the 'fix' will be quick.

How do you think or what has to happen for this not to be just anther band aid situation. Throwing money at the problem was not the answer last time? If the political situation is so tenuous is there a hope that the fundamental changes economically are even achievable?

[nausicaa]

Where, o where did I go lax in explaining what a political opportunist of the first order Tsipras is? And he is so bourgeoise he has been dating and living with his junior high school sweet heart for over 25 years and 2 kids later. :P

I'm just saying if I were on vacation in Santorini and he showed up at my resort and the ouzo were flowing...I'd tap that.

It's purely physical on my part.

[OkToBeTakei]

I'm just saying if I were on vacation in Santorini and he showed up at my resort and the ouzo were flowing...I'd tap that.

It's purely physical on my part.

:lol:

[Arete]

I uh, wrote a whole reply to the question of what needs to get done for this bailout to be successful and now it's gone. I knew this software hated me. I'll try again tomorrow, didn't want anyone to think I flounced or something. :shifty:

[Arete]

Well, it's official. Now that he has secured the 86 trillion Euro loan, Tsipras has dissolved what is left of his government and called for snap elections currently set for 9/20. Tsipras's party was elected in Jan 2015 on a very big campaign pledged to end austerity and hire back government workers who had been let go. When his marathon negotiations with Europe not only did not end austerity but made the terms more punishing, and he realized all these rehires expected to get PAID, his Marxist alliance party actually split in 3. He no longer had enough seats to form a majority government. Back to elections we go. Have no fear ladies, he himself is quite popular and should win his seat back easily. ;) The question is what can he do for a governing coalition? Stay tuned as the conspiracy theories start rolling in.

[samurai_sarah]

Well, it's official. Now that he has secured the 86 trillion Euro loan, Tsipras has dissolved what is left of his government and called for snap elections currently set for 9/20. Tsipras's party was elected in Jan 2015 on a very big campaign pledged to end austerity and hire back government workers who had been let go. When his marathon negotiations with Europe not only did not end austerity but made the terms more punishing, and he realized all these rehires expected to get PAID, his Marxist alliance party actually split in 3. He no longer had enough seats to form a majority government. Back to elections we go. Have no fear ladies, he himself is quite popular and should win his seat back easily. ;) The question is what can he do for a governing coalition? Stay tuned as the conspiracy theories start rolling in.

Oh goodness, the way this is going Greece will be completely bankrupt, economically crippled and in a political deadlock, while still having to bear the brunt of policing refugees (alongside Italy) coming to the EU. What a clusterfuck! Well done, Germany, well done! :angry-banghead:

As you can probably tell from my predictions, I'm currently pissed off with my home country of Germany. Please accept my sincere apologies for Germany, Greece.

[Arete]

The truth is that successive Greek governments are responsible for that clusterfuck we try to pass off as a government and economy. The one thing I can blame the Germans for is treating us like naughty children publicly, and insisting on ratcheting up austerity every year even though the economy was worsening at a rate. Not seen before in other countries under austerity. We now have oldsters dumpster diving in Athens, children fainting in school because school lunches were cut, not to mention increases in infant mortality and suicide because the unemployed have lost the right to healthcare. But hey, German, French, and Greek banks have not lost so much as a Euro on the predatory loans they made, so austerity is a success there.

[latraviata]

The truth is that successive Greek governments are responsible for that clusterfuck we try to pass off as a government and economy. The one thing I can blame the Germans for is treating us like naughty children publicly, and insisting on ratcheting up austerity every year even though the economy was worsening at a rate. Not seen before in other countries under austerity. We now have oldsters dumpster diving in Athens, children fainting in school because school lunches were cut, not to mention increases in infant mortality and suicide because the unemployed have lost the right to healthcare. But hey, German, French, and Greek banks have not lost so much as a Euro on the predatory loans they made, so austerity is a success there.

This an interview with Petros Markaris, who btw is a fantastic author!

http://www.dw.com/en/petros-markaris-wh ... a-18572340

[samurai_sarah]

The truth is that successive Greek governments are responsible for that clusterfuck we try to pass off as a government and economy. The one thing I can blame the Germans for is treating us like naughty children publicly, and insisting on ratcheting up austerity every year even though the economy was worsening at a rate. Not seen before in other countries under austerity. We now have oldsters dumpster diving in Athens, children fainting in school because school lunches were cut, not to mention increases in infant mortality and suicide because the unemployed have lost the right to healthcare. But hey, German, French, and Greek banks have not lost so much as a Euro on the predatory loans they made, so austerity is a success there.

Well, we managed to turn our economy around, why can't you? Must be because you lot are lazy, and we aren't. :angry-banghead:

Sadly, currently, the majority seems to think so or similarly, despite criticism. The majority of my friends and family thinks that Greece deserves a sharp slap on the wrist. And they aren't alone. (German newspaper: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschla ... 72347.html - scroll down a bit. 62% agree with the government, and I seriously hope that this is non-representative.)